tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post9014127548708967238..comments2023-09-28T21:40:05.328+10:00Comments on Dr Clam's accidental blog: Kingdoms of the WallMarco Parigihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-17772064870667333232009-01-07T00:07:00.000+11:002009-01-07T00:07:00.000+11:00Speaking of predictions of well into the future, b...Speaking of predictions of well into the future, back in 1987 we made guesses on the year man would first land on Mars. I seem to recall years in the 2020's as guesses.<BR/><BR/>My thoughts on a "modern depression" is that it is a relative thing. In the Japanese "lost decade", by any historical measure, they kept their affluence including creature comforts, life expectancy etc. They were just more depressed. A global analogue would see many developing countries regress back to an angry, somewhat dispossessed populace. But in developed countries the populace would tend to blame every other country for the stagnation (at an admittedly comfortable GDP)<BR/><BR/>In the past, over a long period, this beggar thy neighbour sentiment led to military build-ups hence the thought that global conflict becomes more possible. This is not necessarily incompatible with happyfunworldtm.Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-64650486687901418862009-01-05T08:02:00.000+11:002009-01-05T08:02:00.000+11:00Perhaps one day I shall take up your marcoeconomic...Perhaps one day I shall take up your marcoeconomic challenge. Here are some <A HREF="http://projects.vassar.edu/1896/depression.html" REL="nofollow">quotes on the 1896 depression</A> for you in the meantime.Dr Clamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14985493422534275997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-14738360022737171192008-12-18T17:38:00.000+11:002008-12-18T17:38:00.000+11:00I forecast a shallow global recession, followed by...<I> I forecast a shallow global recession, followed by a science and technology-driven wave of growth and optimism culminating in Happy Fun World^TM with liberty and justice for all.</I><BR/><BR/>I'd like to see you expand on this in a marconomic evolutionary path- way. What analogous historical events can you point to and say - we are in a similar position due to .... and go on and point to such and such probable process that would get to your culmination.Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-31448902570449004152008-12-18T16:27:00.000+11:002008-12-18T16:27:00.000+11:00Sheesh, have things really gone that bad in only 4...<I>Sheesh, have things really gone that bad in only 40 days?</I><BR/><BR/>Yeah turn your back on the world for 40 days and see what happens!!! :-)Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-83106875506144984222008-12-18T10:12:00.000+11:002008-12-18T10:12:00.000+11:00Sheesh, have things really gone that bad in only 4...Sheesh, have things really gone that bad in only 40 days? I forecast a shallow global recession, followed by a science and technology-driven wave of growth and optimism culminating in Happy Fun World^TM with liberty and justice for all.<BR/><BR/>You still seem to think a UN veto has some sort of significance. The lead-up to the Second Gulf War demonstrated that the UN is a body entirely powerless and irrelevant, a mere decorative pageant like the Mogul Empire c.1850. <BR/><BR/>India has robust democratic institutions, gets along with everybody, and demography is on its side, unlike China, Japan, and Europe. Therefore it is the country to watch in the Eastern Hemisphere for the rest of the century. IMHO.Dr Clamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14985493422534275997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-84816345510764969162008-12-17T14:29:00.000+11:002008-12-17T14:29:00.000+11:00in the new multilateral Age of Stupid it is going ...<I>in the new multilateral Age of Stupid it is going to be very important indeed. </I><BR/><BR/>Let's see... future geopolitical games...<BR/><BR/>I envisage a "modern depression" for a decade with the lost decade of Japan being a rough template....<BR/><BR/>Being more global, trade may plummett, isolating economies somewhat.....<BR/><BR/>This may eventually spark a third world war.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Until a WWIII, geopolitical games will be "cold war"ish - in which only countries with the cover of a veto in the UN would threaten MAD style nuclear armageddon as a last resort - leaving India as a powerful but sidelined player.<BR/><BR/>All bets are off as to what happens then, but it is likely India will have a much larger role when the mess is cleared up.Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-89011688815826782232008-12-17T13:12:00.000+11:002008-12-17T13:12:00.000+11:00...its miniscule role in the Geopolitical games du...<I>...its miniscule role in the Geopolitical games due to it not being a permanent security council member...</I><BR/><BR/>Methinks you have inverted cause and effect and magnified the importance of the UN far beyond its due- the nations that were important in geopolitical games in 1945 made themselves permanent security council members, and have remained important since... India, by consciously embracing non-alignment 1947-1991, placed itself outside the main current of the geopolitical games at the time. It was probably the only nation big enough to do so. <BR/>I think its current role in geopolitical games is very far from miniscule, and in the new multilateral Age of Stupid it is going to be very important indeed. <BR/><BR/>As for the lack of Olympic success, I would ascribe this to having a more sensible set of national priorities. :)Dr Clamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14985493422534275997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7701411.post-16287711774854116042008-12-16T14:58:00.000+11:002008-12-16T14:58:00.000+11:00As usual, a very eloquent review. Other fascinatin...As usual, a very eloquent review. <BR/><BR/>Other fascinating things about India are its miniscule role in the Geopolitical games due to it not being a permanent security council member. Also, its miniscule success at the Olympics compared to its population.Marco Parigihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00702055111711651319noreply@blogger.com