It is difficult to make nuanced arguments in a tweet. In 140 characters one can certainly display a witty epigram, and aspire to a greeting-card platitude level of wisdom, but it is impossible to carry on a proper discussion. Klaus Rohde, by getting in first, has prompted me to do what I have been meaning to do since the story broke - and not just to be even-handed after writing a defence of Andrew Bolt - which was to write something about Scott McIntyre's treatment. If I were tweeting, I would just say: It is appalling that someone can be sacked for expressing perfectly reasonable opinions and stating facts that are true.
I am not unfavourably disposed towards imperialism, especially of the British variety. So I do not consider 'imperialist invasion' to be a slur. It is a statement of fact. We only participated in the landings at the Dardanelles because we were part of the imperialist system. We had no quarrel with Turkey. A few generations before, as part of the imperialist system, we had fought with Turkey against Russia, leading to place names in country Australia like Balaklava and Inkerman. I think Scott McIntyre's opinion here is perfectly justifiable and reasonable, if contested; the commemoration was over the top, and (though maybe it is just my perception) ANZAC day has grown more nationalistic and less reflective in tone since I first arrived here in the 1980s. If someone can be sacked for disrupting a ceremony, that ceremony certainly has a cultic character. And the opinion that this cultification is against all ideals of modern society is not an opinion that should be beyond the pale. I would quarrel with it only on the basis that 'modern society' has so many conflicting ideals that it can hardly be against all of them. But the ideals expressed in the charter of the United Nations, in the Declaration of the Rights of Man, in the speeches of Barry Goldwater or Barack Obama - such a cultification is certainly against those ideals.
This is just a question. And it is a question that is valid to ask. It is not saying that all people participating in commemorative activities are poorly-read, white, nationalist, drinkers, or gamblers. But it really could apply to all of us. When we remember the tens of thousands of Australian dead, do we remember Russia, where almost three million died? Do we remember East Africa, where a hundred thousand conscripted Africans died? Do we think about the manifold horrors that were unleashed by the World War - the Armenian Genocide that almost certainly would not have happened without it, the Russian Revolution that almost certainly would not have happened without it, the destruction of civilisational trust and confidence that the West is still reeling from? Did the drinkers and gamblers - who are mostly poorly-read, white, and nationalist - pause to consider those things? It is a fair question to ask, I think.
Yes, summary executions, widespread rape and theft in Egypt and Palestine. And elsewhere. We should remember these things. This is not to say that the ANZACs were unusually bad: human beings are human beings, and this is what will always happen when you take a bunch of young men and place them under extreme stress without also placing them under extreme discipline.
As far as I am concerned, this is a simple unvarnished statement of historical truth. We were part of a coalition that carried out these attacks. I define 'terrorism' as 'the deliberate use of lethal force against civilians for political ends'. There were larger acts of terrorism - Stalin's deliberate famines, for instance, but for a single-day terrorist attack, the only rival to the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was also carried out by our coalition, and also against the civilians of Japan: the Operation Meetinghouse bombing of Tokyo. These terrorist attacks may have been justified to end the war sooner, or to avoid Communist occupation of a larger fraction of the Japanese Empire; I would almost certainly have supported them at that time, for those reasons. There is no easy answer. But this does not mean the bombings of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Tokyo were not terrorist attacks. And we should not forget.
Sunday, May 03, 2015
Monday, January 05, 2015
The Condor and the Cows
I'm still hoping to get winstoninabox to answer the question posed by Dostoevsky's Grand Inquisitor.
In the meantime, here is a quote from Christopher Isherwood, in 'The Condor and the Cows', that asks a similar question.
"As for the militant atheists of the Left Wing, their smug stupidity appalls me. It is all very well to brand certain cults and legends as superstitious, and to attack the political crimes of the historic sects, but have they never stopped to ask themselves what religion itself is for? How in the world do they imagine they can make their free democratic community function when they have removed the whole spiritual basis of consent? Don't they know anything about human nature? Do they really think that justice and public ethics can operate in a vacuum? No- they are too busy getting on with their revolution. They take it for granted, with an optimism that is mystical in the worst sense of the word, that the fundamental problem will somehow solve itself."
In the meantime, here is a quote from Christopher Isherwood, in 'The Condor and the Cows', that asks a similar question.
"As for the militant atheists of the Left Wing, their smug stupidity appalls me. It is all very well to brand certain cults and legends as superstitious, and to attack the political crimes of the historic sects, but have they never stopped to ask themselves what religion itself is for? How in the world do they imagine they can make their free democratic community function when they have removed the whole spiritual basis of consent? Don't they know anything about human nature? Do they really think that justice and public ethics can operate in a vacuum? No- they are too busy getting on with their revolution. They take it for granted, with an optimism that is mystical in the worst sense of the word, that the fundamental problem will somehow solve itself."
Saturday, December 20, 2014
19-22, All the Others
Number Six in a Series on Countries Named after Peeps

You might remember it as the country that used to straddle the international date line, which was shifted so that the whole country could be the same day at the same time. It has 100,000 people spread over three time zones and is all atolls no more than a few metres above sea level.
Well, it has been a long time. Here are the last four peeps
who have given their names to current countries:
19. Saud ibn Muhammad ibn Migrin c.1680-1740?
Emir of Al-Diriyah and father of Muhammad ibn Saud, who was
the founder of the first Saudi state.
20. Thomas Gilbert c.1750-1820?
21. John Marshall
1748-1819
These gentlemen were the captains of two vessels belonging
to the East India Company that were chartered to bring convicts to Australia in
the First Fleet. Gilbert was captain of the Charlotte
and Marshall of the Scarborough. Once
they had gotten rid of their cargo of ne’erdowells, they sailed off for Canton
to pick up some tea for the journey back to England. And I guess because no one
had ever had any particular reason to sail as quickly as they could manage from
Australia to China before, they ended up cutting through an expanse of ocean
that no European vessel had been recorded going through before. This expanse of
ocean had some previously undiscovered islands, which they humbly named the ‘Kingsmill
Islands’ and ‘Lord Mulgrove’s Range’, but they ended up being called,
respectively, the Gilbert Islands and the Marshall Islands. Apparently thanks
to the enthusiastic renaming efforts of the Russian explorer Adam Johann von
Krusenstern (see below).
![]() |
| This is Adam Johann von Krusenstern, in a break between renaming islands |
Who also, it seems, renamed the Hervey Islands after Captain James
Cook.
The language of the Gilbert Islands, like Hawaiian, doesn’t
have an ‘L’ sound or a ‘G’ sound, so ‘Gilberts’ is written ‘Kiribati’.

You might remember it as the country that used to straddle the international date line, which was shifted so that the whole country could be the same day at the same time. It has 100,000 people spread over three time zones and is all atolls no more than a few metres above sea level.
Then there are the Marshall Islands, which also have a great
flag – it was one of my son’s favourites when he was very small and very keen
on flags - and the unenviable distinction of being the site of all kinds of
nuclear weapons tests.
So those are the only two countries named after Englishmen.
There isn’t much information about Thomas Gilbert on the interwebz, but John
Marshall would be a good subject for a series of historical novels. He was born
in Ramsgate on the 15th of February, 1748, and was sent to sea as an
apprentice at the age of 10, spending most of the next sixty years at sea. As
well as taking part in the First and Second Fleets, he fought the dastardly
rebel colonists of North America in their rebellion and was severely wounded fighting
a French privateer in the Napoleonic wars.
When I was born, both of these countries would not have counted
on this list, being colonies, but there was a much more populous country named
after a third Englishman, which has since taken its place in the dustbin of
history.
22. Simón José
Antonio de la Santísima Trinidad Bolívar y Palacios Ponte y Blanco (24 July
1783 – 17 December 1830)
Who started this series. Bolivia is named after him, and of
course the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. I have just ended up linking to Wikipedia mostly, anyways, so you can use your own initiative to look him up.
| I don't know who these people are. But they are looking very festively Bolivarian. |
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Accept No Substitutes
I finally got around to reading Milton’s Comus the other
night, through the simple expedient of spending all night reading at Sydney airport so as to save
money on accommodation before my flight home. I have been meaning to read Comus because of the
mentions of it in Alex Waugh’s ‘Loom of Youth’, which I read because I read
Evelyn Waugh’s autobiography.
Near the end of Comus I suddenly had a feeling a deja vu.
The song is being sung to Sabrina, incarnation of the river
Severn:
May thy lofty head be crowned
With many a tower and terrace round
And here and there thy banks upon
With groves of myrrh and cinnamon
(lines 934-937)
And there echoed in my head these other four lines about the vicinity of Alph,
the sacred river:
So twice five miles of fertile ground
With walls and towers were girdled round
And there were gardens bright with sinuous rills
Where blossomed many an incense bearing tree
In form and content that is just too close to be
coincidence, methinks.
Line 926 of Comus ends with ‘rills’, by the way. And line
990 contains the word ‘cedarn’, which the notes to the poem say is a uniquely
Miltonic word that the blind poet made up, but I had only ever met in Kubla Khan. A few lines down (941) is ‘With some other new device’, which is echoed by ‘It was a miracle of rare
device’. Line 1002 of Comus has an Assyrian queen, which is echoed in Kubla
Khan by an Abyssinian maid. Wikipedia tells me Mount Abora was originally Mount
Amara, which is mentioned in Paradise Lost.
We can safely assume Coleridge, like any educated Englishman of his time, to be
thoroughly steeped in Milton.
Here’s my theory.
Coleridge didn’t dream any old poem. He dreamt an alternate
ending to Comus. Which of course, being a paean to the glory of chastity,
suggests a very obvious alternate ending. Instead of the virgin Sabrina, we have
Alph, the sacred river (which is probably a reference to the lecherous Alpheus of the Pellopennese). You will remember how it was ‘flung up momently’ in a ‘mighty
fountain’ ‘with ceaseless turmoil seething, as if this earth in fast thick
pants were breathing.’
Here's the corollary to my theory.
Any analysis of Kubla Khan that does not mention Comus (which is all of them that I can find so far) is a load of toss.
Ending 1, Sabrina:
Mortals, that would follow me,
Love virtue; she alone is free.
She can teach ye how to climb
Higher than the sphery chime;
Or, if Virtue feeble were,
Heaven itself would stoop to her.
Ending 2, Alpheus:
Weave a circle round him thrice,
And close your eyes with holy dread,
For he on honey-dew hath fed,
And drunk the milk of Paradise.
Sunday, September 28, 2014
12-18, The Age of Discovery
Number 5 in a series on Countries Named after Peeps
12. Ali Musa Mbiki (Musa Al Big), c.1500
The story goes that there was an island which named after
its sultan, Ali Musa Mbiki, who was probably one of the Omani Arabs who were
enthusiastic traders in that part of the Indian Ocean. Or, it may be that when
Vasco de Gama’s expedition came through there and bombarded the island and
kidnapped a couple of Arab pilots as guides, they got the name of the sultan
and the name of the island confused. This is what the island looks like
nowadays:
It is called ‘Mozambique’, and being about the first place
taken by the Portuguese on the east coast of Africa, it gave its name to their
whole colony there.
13. Cristoforo Colombo, 1451-1506
You’ve probably heard of him. A Genoan navigator, the second
of the two peeps born in Italy to have countries named after them, after St
Lucy. (St Marinus was supposedly born in what is now Croatia). It does not
appear that his voyages in the Caribbean ever brought him within sight of the
country named after him. It seems to have been a near thing whether he would
have a country named after him, as none of the constituent parts of the first
Republic of Colombia (1819-1831) kept that name on its disintegration. Modern
Colombia was called a couple of other names before becoming the United States
of Colombia in 1863.
14. Amerigo Vespucci 1454-1512
The third Italian to have a country named after him, from Florence, was sent by the Medicis to
look after a branch office of their mercantile empire in Spain, and ended up going
on some indeterminate number of expeditions to the New World. Being one of the
first to cotton on to the fact that the New World was a continent (or two) and
not just islands off the coast of Asia, or the first to popularise this fact,
he scored the enviable distinction of having two continents named after him.
(Continents have to be female, and named in classical languages, so it is the
latinised feminine form of his first name that has been preserved). As such his
name features in the most populous country named after a peep, the United
States of America.
15. Afonso, Prince
of Portugal 1475-1491
Even younger at his death than the martyrs of the Diocletion
persecution, the only legitimate son of King John the Second of Portugal had
been married in childhood to Isabella, heir to the thrones of Castille and
Aragon. His death in a horse-riding accident is sometimes attributed to the
malign influence of his in-laws - the patrons of #13 and #14 on the list.
An island off the west coast of Africa, originally named
after Saint Anthony by its Portuguese discoverers, was renamed after the Prince, and
the taxes levied on the sugar produced on the island were made over to the use
of the heir-apparent to the Portuguese throne. According to Wikipedia the
renaming was actually done in 1502, so the Prince the island is named after may instead have been the future King John the Third of Portugal, Afonso’s second cousin
once removed, who was the only extant Prince of Portugal in that year.
Complicating the question further, Afonso’s father John II was said to
perfectly embody in his life the principles outlined by Machiavelli’s ‘The
Prince’ and was known as ‘the Perfect Prince’, o Príncipe Perfeito.
But Principe was definitely named after one of these Portuguese
royals, and today is the junior island in Africa’s second smallest nation, which
we have already seen because its larger island is also named after a peep.
16. Philip II 1527 –1598)
While their most Catholic majesties Ferdinand and Isabella
are hanging around in the background of the lives of #13-15, their
great-grandson Phillip the Prudent was the first member of their family to end
up with a country named after him.
While he was still only Prince of Asturias (he later became
King of Ireland, King of Jerusalem, Count of Friesland, Duke of Milan, and all manner of other things) the Spanish explorer Ruy López de Villalobos named the
islands of Leyte and Samar ‘Islas Felipinas’ after him, and over time this name
was extended to the whole archipelago
which Magellan had originally named after Saint Lazarus.
17. Maurits van Oranje 1567-1625
Phillip II was of course the arch-nemesis of William the
Silent, founder of the royal house of the Netherlands. And William’s son
Maurice of Nassau, Prince of Orange, also ended up with a country named after
him: the island of Mauritius, named in his honour by Dutch explorers.He is the first Protestant on the list, and the only (ahem) German, having been born in what is now the German state of Hesse.
18. Jean Moreau de Séchelles 1690-1761
The only Frenchman to have a country named after him, and
the only Minister of Finance.
He scored the smallest country ‘in Africa’, an archipelago
which might have ended up being named after Vasco de Gama instead: but it seems
like de Gama only spotted some of the smaller outlying islands of what is now
the Seychelles and his naming them after himself only stuck with those.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
Playing with Maps
I came across this map of the rebel colonies divided into fifty states of equal population, and thought of doing one for Australia, but realised most of the fifty states would be too small to see on the map. then I thought I would divide Australia into fifty states with the same relative populations as the existing states of the rebel colonies, but that didn't look very pretty either, as even a California-sized proportional chunk of the Australian population is too small to cover Sydney or Melbourne. So I did the more logical thing, and divided Australia into six states of equal population with the aid of the Australian Electoral Commission's map of electoral districts, leaving the territories as they are.
The only benefit of this cockamamie proposal is that it puts the AFL-playing areas of NSW into a majority AFL state, giving three AFL and three League states, which would make for a more interesting State of Origin Competition. We could have a meta-Grand Final where the winners of the two State of Origin Competitions played each other at soccer. I guess there is one other benefit in that it puts the ACT in between two states instead of entirely surrounded by one, which is tidy. Other than that there is not much to recommend this proposal.
The other thing I thought of doing was inverting my first idea. Instead of dividing Australia into fifty states with the same relative populations as the American states, I would divide the rebel colonies into pieces of the same relative population as the Australian states. With the aid of the wikipedia commons map of the county boundaries, I got this.
I wanted to make Alaska and Hawaii the Northern Territory, but they don't have enough people, and dividing it into three pieces seemed ugly, so I did the next best thing and slotted it appropriately between Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. The main bits of Hawaii and Alaska I have therefore associated with New South Wales, as grossly inflated cloned analogues of Lord Howe Island. I probably should have dragged in the more farflung Pacific and Carribean possessions of the rebel colonies to map our territories onto, but my calculations were already dreadfully far along by the time I thought of it.
The only benefit of this cockamamie proposal is that it puts the AFL-playing areas of NSW into a majority AFL state, giving three AFL and three League states, which would make for a more interesting State of Origin Competition. We could have a meta-Grand Final where the winners of the two State of Origin Competitions played each other at soccer. I guess there is one other benefit in that it puts the ACT in between two states instead of entirely surrounded by one, which is tidy. Other than that there is not much to recommend this proposal.
The other thing I thought of doing was inverting my first idea. Instead of dividing Australia into fifty states with the same relative populations as the American states, I would divide the rebel colonies into pieces of the same relative population as the Australian states. With the aid of the wikipedia commons map of the county boundaries, I got this.
I wanted to make Alaska and Hawaii the Northern Territory, but they don't have enough people, and dividing it into three pieces seemed ugly, so I did the next best thing and slotted it appropriately between Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. The main bits of Hawaii and Alaska I have therefore associated with New South Wales, as grossly inflated cloned analogues of Lord Howe Island. I probably should have dragged in the more farflung Pacific and Carribean possessions of the rebel colonies to map our territories onto, but my calculations were already dreadfully far along by the time I thought of it.
Cui Bono?
Warning: Contains greater than 1000% of the RDA of crackpot
conspiracy theories. Maybe much greater.
Marco has avowed recently that he no longer believes
anything he reads in the media, and is of the opinion that the freedom of the
press in the West is about as great, in real terms, as the freedom of the press
in the renegade mainland provinces of the Republic of China. It is clear to him
that much of what passes for news and news analysis is simply “off the wall out
and out lies”. He says he is close to believing all left-wing conspiracy
theories about the media, and he cites this article from the Economist about
Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine as an example of Western journalism starting from
a basis of pure propaganda, and professes a generally pro-Russian view of the
situation in Ukraine.
While sharing Marco’s distrust of the media, I replied that on
the contrary, I am close to believing all right-wing conspiracy theories about
the media. Rather than the Western media being manipulated to defame Russia, I
think it is much more likely that it is a puppet dancing on Russian strings.
This was after all the case for the left-wing Western media throughout the
entire history of the Soviet Union. In the twenties Western journalists reported
things that were later found to be untrue; in the thirties Western journalists
reported things that were later found to be untrue; in the forties Western
journalists enthusiastically participated in creating propaganda for ‘Uncle Joe’;
throughout the Cold War the Western Media was infected with defeatism; up to
the very last moment of August 1991 a false moral-equivalence and exaggerated
respect for the solidity and effectiveness of the Soviet Union permeated the
Western media. They did not produce much in the Soviet Union that was better
than the West: Energiya rockets, certainly; but besides that, lies. They were
masters at generating every kind of lie for every kind of purpose. Brash,
unsubtle big lies that worked through their sheer audacity; little lies that
slowly wore away resistance by constant repetition; subtle lies that were
almost the truth. The Cold War was a war of disinformation. And Putin, former KGB man, is an heir to this
tradition. I think that he has taken up
the dusty levers for steering western public opinion that were left untended in
1991-1999, and that the Western media has to a large extent been reporting
exactly what he wants it to during the 21st century. I think he is a
master both of the brash unsubtle lie for domestic consumption and the insidious
byzantine lie for foreign consumption. I think if negative press about Putin
gets traction in the West, it is because he no longer cares what we think.
I am now going to consider three cases, two big ones and one
almost trivial one, where the narrative of the Western media has made no sense,
asking the question: who benefits from this narrative?
Exhibit A: Kosovo cf.
Iraq
Kuwait was to Iraq as Crimea is to Russia. They both should
be back where they belong. (Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Times, 21st
December 1993)
In 1999 the government of Serbia and Montenegro, the rump of
Yugoslavia, fought to maintain the territorial integrity of their country
against an secessionist ethnic minority, in much the same way that NATO members
the United Kingdom, Spain, and Turkey have acted against their own secessionist
ethnic minorities. Serbia and Montenegro had never shown any territorial
ambitions outside the boundaries of the former Yugoslavia. All of their
aggression had been in an attempt to prevent the disintegration of a country
that had been a solid member of the community of nations for seventy years: the
communist state that had been best integrated into the rest of Europe. They had
never attacked anyone outside the borders of Yugoslavia. Since 1995 they had
accepted with good grace peace agreements negotiated in Bosnia and Hercegovina
and in Croatia. They were not causing trouble to anyone outside their own
country. They were trying their best to rebuild from the damage (largely
self-inflicted) they had suffered during the break of Yugoslavia.
NATO bombed them and set up an unviable kleptocratic state
of Kosovo. There was no basis in international law for the attack. The
government of Serbia and Montenegro was not a threat to anyone outside of
Serbia and Montenegro.A few people protested. In Sydney, I remember, they all
seemed to be Serbs. The Western media yawned. Western public opinion applauded.
The dictator of Iraq had launched the worst war of the 1980s
in an unprovoked attack on one of his neighbours; at the beginning of the 1990s
he annexed another of his neighbours, and in the course of the war fought to
liberate this neighbour, he mounted a ground invasion of a third neighbour and
bombed a fourth country. He was a clear menace to the neighbourhood. He was not
removed from power in 1991, only because he was in the Soviet orbit, and the
lingering Cold War mentality of the West shrank from pushing so far. Internally,
he had pursued policies against ethnic minorities and political opponents that
were vastly worse than anything done in Serbia and Montenegro. In 2003 he had
been in breach of United Nations resolutions for twelve years. But it was the
war to get rid of him – a war with a justification in international law, fought
with a coalition much broader than NATO - that brought out protesters in tens
of thousands in every capital city of the West. It was the war against him that
we argued about for years, the war that is still excoriated by the entire left
and repudiated by a plurality of the right. Why?
Sure, party politics inside the United States might lead the
media in that country to reflexively support Clinton in 1999 but not Bush in
2003, but why should this solipsistic madness infect the rest of the world? I
never understood.
Who benefits from keeping a genocidal, aggressive dictator
in the heart of the Middle East? Not his neighbours, four of which he waged war
on. Not Europe or Japan, who want the region that is the source of a large
fraction of their fossil fuels to be calm and reliable. Not China: it doesn’t
have global ambitions, and has an interest in cheap fuel. Not the United
States: it has no ticker for being the world’s policeman, and wishes it could
sit securely behind its oceans and ignore the rest of the world like it did in the
19th century.
I have just finished re-reading ’Zhirinovksy: The Little
Black Book’, a collection of quotes cobbled together back in 1994 from the
speeches and writings of Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky. A probable
KGB-stooge, renowned sayer of crazy things and vile misogynist, he was deputy
speaker of the Russian parliament for more than a decade. To compare him to
members of the Australian parliament who are renowned for saying crazy things -
to Bob Katter or Christine Milne, f’rinstance – is to involuntarily fall to one’s
knees and thank God for Australia.
One thing that struck me on rereading the book is a
recurring theme in the quotes made by the early Zhirinovsky: the importance to
Russia of the countries immediately to the south of the old Soviet Union. He
wants Russian soldiers to wash their boots in the Indian Ocean. He does not
have global ambitions, but he wants the near abroad back, and he wants Russia
to be the hegemon of the Middle East. He wants Iran; he wants Turkey. This was
an old tsarist ambition, and the kind of thing Bob Santamaria used to endlessly
warn us about on television. I think it is still there. Russia cannot expand
into a Middle East that is peaceful and stable and secure under the umbrella of
the Pax Americana. If it is too weak at the moment to act against it now, it is
in its interests to keep it weak and divided until it can. Russia is also a
major exporter of fossil fuels. It is in its interests to keep other major
exporters of fossil fuels insecure, to push up prices and to increase its
comparative advantage as a stable, reliable source. Russia is the one nation
whose long-term interests clearly align with continued chaos in the Middle
East.
So consider this difference between 1999 and 2003 as one
possible explanation for the bizarre difference between the public reaction to these
two wars: Putin was in charge of the old Soviet propaganda mill in 2003, but
not in 1999. He was horrified at how badly the propaganda machine had been
mismanaged in aid of his slavic brethren in Kosovo, and swore ‘never again’. Correlation is not causation; but I respectfully
submit that this is less batshit insane than most other explanations I can come
up with. It’s just a theory.
Exhibit B: Climate
Change
The observational evidence for anthropogenic global warming
was strong in the 1990s. The evidence
since then has been weak, but the media
frenzy has been much greater in the 2000s, peaking in 2007.
I have argued about
this ad nauseam, so I won’t bore you now. Much. It has just been always
blindingly obvious to me that Bjorn Lomberg is right. The cost-benefit analysis
of taking action to stop emission of carbon dioxide now, to such an extent that
it might actually reduce warming, shows that it is almost the dumbest possible
thing we could do. Why should the media interest increase, and continue to
increase, as the observational evidence gets weaker and weaker? This is another
thing I could never understand. 
Who benefits from the West hobbling its economy in a
precipitous rush to head off a crisis that is a media beat-up? Not the West
itself. Not any country that is integrated into the global economy and earns it
living selling us stuff; or that aspires to such a position. Not the poorer Third
World, whose restive urban populations need cheap food from the fossil-fuel-dependent
farms of the West. No, only a country that is poorly integrated with the global
economy, with long-term ambitions to autarky, that knows it is at a competitive
disadvantage and needs time to catch up, could benefit from ill-thought out climate
change action by the West. Did I mention it is a major supplier of a fuel that can
give a large immediate impact on reducing greenhouse emissions by replacing
coal? And there’s this. I would be willing to bet that Russian involvement in
the anti-fracking movement is deeper and broader than anyone imagines.
Again, this is just a theory. Please don’t send anyone
around to put polonium in my coffee.
Exhibit C: Assassination
of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh
You might recall the assassination of a top Hamas official
in Dubai in 2010, attributed to Mossad. It was carried out by a ridiculously
large number of agents, all travelling on forged Western passports. The faces
of the assassins were captured on camera; the details of their forged passports
were recorded; the whole operation seemed rather amateurish. Yet none of the assassins has ever been
identified publicly. It struck me as strange that all the passports used were
from European countries or Australia and all the agents could pass for Western
Europeans or Australians, when there are many more people in the pool of
potential Mossad agents who are fluent speakers of Arabic and Russian than of
Western European languages, and could pass for nationals of those countries who
are common travellers in the UAE: but this may well be because the passports
are all from countries that don’t need visas to enter the UAE (and Russia and
the Arab countries aren’t).
But, why haven’t any of these people been identified? Israel
is a fairly open society with a population about the same as New South Wales.
There is a free press. There is a big Israeli emigre population all over the
world. How come nobody has come out in London or Berkeley and given an
interview to one of the many rabidly anti-Zionist papers out there, saying ‘I
recognise that guy, that’s X, we used to play volleyball together in high
school in Petah Tikvah’? Where are all the acquaintances of these 11 suspects? I
don’t understand. And I think, where are you going to find 11 educated white
people who don’t have any acquaintances who are going to show up in the Western
media? Russia, that’s where I think. And maybe Western European and Australian
passports were just to avoid having to get a visa, and Mossad didn’t mind
limiting their pool of potential agents in this way; or maybe instead, someone
with a background in byzantine spycraft wanted to pin the blame for the
assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh on Israel, and at the same time sow trouble
between Israel and its near-allies in the West. Two birds with one stone: get
rid of a Hamas loose cannon who is about to (f’rinstance) spill the beans on
the extent of Russian involvement in the Iranian nuclear program, and cause
trouble for Israel.
Just a wacky conspiracy theory, again. If true, an amazingly
successful piece of FSB disinformation. I am in awe. But I don’t have any
evidence, so there’s no need to hunt me down. Thanks!
Parenthetically consider this: A weak and disorderly Middle-East
is good for Russia. A demonised Israel is a good way to ensure a weak and
disorderly Middle East. The first intifada stopped about the time the Soviet
Union collapsed. The Al-Aqsa intifada
started up in 2000, shortly after Putin came to power.
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